World Politics · resolved market
Indian election: NDA wins 400+ seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8befc90134e4a8ef43e00ba6356d4bfa18bedd4da55671644f48d7a60fd0509d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 13c | 18,486$2,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,397.48 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 16c | 3,064$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.21 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 10c | 2,110$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.72 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,271$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.91 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb5…79a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…e69cbacked Yes | 13c | 633.65$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…df0cbacked Yes | 13c | 483.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd889…4febbacked Yes | 16c | 367.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked No | 79c | 315.35$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…0197backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 227.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb289…16a5backed No | 79c | 196.65$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e72…e7b0backed No | 80c | 125.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7666…5040backed Yes | 18c | 121.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed No | 77c | 116.04$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…84f2backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d0…0caebacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +345.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.