Premier League · resolved market
Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c1ce6944328d8041dee4b20d051fdae9d50f91a280e0eceeb1e2d9b8fffd856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 9c | 1,428$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Over | 17c | 1,212$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.62 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 1,092$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.86 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 8c | 1,061$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 120 | 20.8%25 W · 95 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 75c | 886.67$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.67 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Under | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 12c | 391.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 24c | 312$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Under | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 26c | 199.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 78c | 183.14$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 23c | 166.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Over | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 26c | 139.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 30c | 116.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Under | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 27c | 103.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Over | 27c | 96.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 22c | 91.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 21c | 65.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 77c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 23c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…d8adbacked Under | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 71c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Queens Park Rangers FC (-1.5)Watford FC won
- Spread: Queens Park Rangers FC (-2.5)Watford FC won
- Spread: Watford FC (-1.5)Queens Park Rangers FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.