Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Kalmychata - Game 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c33bb665c1a5af671994ebdacd64d2abbad40bb8512cdfd0d898a75f0f4a64f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, Kalmychata
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed L1ga Team | 77c | 647.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked L1ga Team | 54c | 599.99$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…e2c1backed L1ga Team | 60c | 593.73$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf731…18cabacked Kalmychata | 44c | 557.49$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Kalmychata | 46c | 533.61$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.85 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed L1ga Team | 74c | 264.46$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Kalmychata | 43c | 233.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Kalmychata | 43c | 212.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…ba9ebacked Kalmychata | 28c | 193.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Kalmychata | 40c | 176.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Kalmychata | 38c | 172.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…67ecbacked L1ga Team | 60c | 170.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed L1ga Team | 54c | 134.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Kalmychata | 48c | 113.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed L1ga Team | 67c | 110.59$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kalmychata | 15c | 106.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8470…7933backed Kalmychata | 13c | 99.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb96…934fbacked Kalmychata | 25c | 78.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Kalmychata | 40c | 76.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Kalmychata | 18c | 65.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…b8e6backed Kalmychata | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Kalmychata | 44c | 45.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed L1ga Team | 58c | 39.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2a…2f37backed L1ga Team | 57c | 33.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +4.9wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed Kalmychata | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked L1ga Team | 56c | 25.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked L1ga Team | 60c | 24.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Kalmychata | 49c | 22.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed L1ga Team | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Kalmychata - Game 3 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Kalmychata (BO5)L1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Kalmychata - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Kalmychata - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.