Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Kalmychata - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ac12b4da094ab47a6b9a4e4911a2fe77394043503d6234b01c86ff9e7658633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, Kalmychata
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked L1ga Team | 69c | 1,485$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.29 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Kalmychata | 54c | 1,033$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Kalmychata | 8c | 796.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Kalmychata | 50c | 500$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.49 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…8185backed L1ga Team | 36c | 468.75$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed L1ga Team | 71c | 439.35$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.28 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Kalmychata | 41c | 365.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.69 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed L1ga Team | 78c | 319.57$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Kalmychata | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Kalmychata | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Kalmychata | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Kalmychata | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed L1ga Team | 39c | 163.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…25d3backed L1ga Team | 55c | 135.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked L1ga Team | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Kalmychata | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…7453backed Kalmychata | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked L1ga Team | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ed…50efbacked Kalmychata | 22c | 57.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed Kalmychata | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed L1ga Team | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed L1ga Team | 76c | 47.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked L1ga Team | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Kalmychata - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Kalmychata (BO5)L1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Kalmychata - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Kalmychata - Game 3 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.