Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Carabelli (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c7201d98cea1a46d6c4c8bb5a3691ad3aa0d2a634be6dd30d04adfb5ba11fd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carabelliof Cobolli, Carabelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Cobolli | 43c | 493.74$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272b…0a6ebacked Cobolli | 47c | 442.84$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.17 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Carabelli | 53c | 407.45$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.5 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Carabelli | 50c | 401.52$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Cobolli | 49c | 390.48$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.76 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Carabelli | 54c | 256.11$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…38d5backed Carabelli | 55c | 222.18$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.98 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Carabelli | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af8…57ffbacked Cobolli | 51c | 189.79$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -60%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Carabelli | 50c | 82.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…4455backed Cobolli | 45c | 47.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Carabelli | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Carabelli (+1.5)this page
- Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Flavio CobolliFlavio Cobolli won
- Set 1 Winner: Carabelli vs CobolliCarabelli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.