NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. MON
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ca97ccec745d2998ca758ded09b240b7b94d23365b74a1f23dddfe0e24168ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MONof Penguins, MON
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked MON | 47c | 1,043$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.51 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Penguins | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.91 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked MON | 62c | 792.08$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.99 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Penguins | 38c | 419.1$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.07 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Penguins | 38c | 368.39$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed MON | 59c | 126.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Penguins | 75c | 106.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 309 | 46.3%143 W · 166 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed MON | 46c | 96.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed MON | 35c | 90.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Penguins | 34c | 87.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Penguins | 36c | 85.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…4ebabacked Penguins | 73c | 84.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0d…59d0backed Penguins | 37c | 74.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked MON | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 372 | 54.3%202 W · 170 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Penguins | 33c | 43.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked MON | 58c | 32.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x295c…a424backed MON | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Penguins | 63c | 25.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.