Tennis · resolved market
WTA Cincinnati - Rybakina vs. Swiatek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cc14b91e895b8af38159177c4d8613d2831b3007b0ff1b7f77173900fbafff9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swiatekof Rybakina, Swiatek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef4…412cbacked Rybakina | 68c | 85,000$57,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,800 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Swiatek | 32c | 81,908$26,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,697.77 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Swiatek | 53c | 7,604$4,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,572.13 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Rybakina | 40c | 6,500$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.99 | 682 | 49.6%338 W · 344 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Swiatek | 61c | 2,235$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.26 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Swiatek | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…141cbacked Rybakina | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Rybakina | 38c | 886.02$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.69 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Swiatek | 62c | 545.16$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.16 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Swiatek | 61c | 502.42$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.32 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked Rybakina | 66c | 380.3$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed Swiatek | 47c | 375$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Swiatek | 60c | 290$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Rybakina | 41c | 180$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Swiatek | 60c | 167.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Swiatek | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Swiatek | 61c | 117$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Rybakina | 41c | 101.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…3e01backed Swiatek | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Swiatek | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…facbbacked Swiatek | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Swiatek | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Swiatek | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.