Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2025-09-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cffd0a1c5aaec87fff9dc82519c10357518acd31ef7e28345f4b8dae1b9d49d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 57c | 5,779$3,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,484.99 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 4,916$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,116.21 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 62c | 1,558$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.77 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked No | 27c | 1,496$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 42c | 1,173$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.4 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 10c | 553.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 42c | 499.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 73c | 391.55$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.28 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 58c | 355.9$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.48 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 61c | 328.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.03 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 58c | 218.57$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.77 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 59c | 170.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 41c | 148.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…7293backed Yes | 43c | 94.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 74c | 79.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 150 | 71.3%107 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 50c | 77.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273a…6d54backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…844cbacked Yes | 75c | 24.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-09-14?this page
- Will Angers SCO win on 2025-09-14?No won
- Will FC Metz vs. Angers SCO end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.