Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db1b170d0e7f896c555ffac721d165eb9e475df5a7f5d15da9418b019ea6b00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 1c | 1,359$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 58c | 449.01$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.5 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 56c | 339.16$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 308.92$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed No | 79c | 249.27$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 71c | 197.77$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.18 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 15c | 172.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 33c | 161.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 159.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 141.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 130.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 58c | 104.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 103.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 101.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 21c | 95.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 89.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 24c | 86.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbd…e8e7backed Yes | 16c | 73.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 34c | 69.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 67.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 65.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed No | 79c | 62.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 21c | 62.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 60.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 53c | 43.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 45c | 41.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 73c | 41.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 56c | 25.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…f870backed No | 77c | 25.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 64c | 23.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…70f0backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 58c | 19.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.