Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dcba575365830bcae413dc1db307a6b53554d3782a9c3cbb34621a49a165d48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Minaur, Mensik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mensik | 28c | 1,339$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.33 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Minaur | 72c | 1,304$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.12 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Mensik | 15c | 1,084$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.64 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mensik | 31c | 607.62$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.46 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Mensik | 32c | 474.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mensik | 30c | 317.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…d3fdbacked Minaur | 70c | 317.14$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Minaur | 68c | 297.62$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Mensik | 31c | 235.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Minaur | 69c | 216.83$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Mensik | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Minaur | 71c | 169.07$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…a916backed Minaur | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Minaur | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Minaur | 67c | 143.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Minaur | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Minaur | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa637…bacfbacked Minaur | 69c | 128.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Minaur | 69c | 107.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Minaur | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Minaur | 73c | 99.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Mensik | 32c | 56.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Mensik | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Minaur | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Minaur | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Minaur | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Minaur | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…126ebacked Minaur | 74c | 21.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.