College Football · resolved market
Spread: Iowa State (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dec68c3b1a3f99e03b7c46cdce7cdba84bd151161c9773d3d0a97018aaf40b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oklahoma Stateof Iowa State, Oklahoma State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Iowa State | 53c | 14,937$7,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,846.96 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Oklahoma State | 49c | 9,787$4,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,040.11 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Oklahoma State | 47c | 3,816$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.66 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Oklahoma State | 48c | 1,918$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.49 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Iowa State | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.96 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Iowa State | 53c | 660.38$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Oklahoma State | 48c | 561.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.24 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Oklahoma State | 48c | 451.31$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.68 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Oklahoma State | 48c | 386$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.59 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Iowa State | 52c | 384.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Iowa State | 50c | 151.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Oklahoma State | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Oklahoma State | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Oklahoma State | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Oklahoma State | 48c | 94.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Iowa State | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Iowa State | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Oklahoma State | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Iowa State | 45c | 39.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Iowa State (-13.5)this page
- Iowa State vs. Oklahoma StateIowa State won
- Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State: O/U 46.5Under won
- Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Iowa State (-14.5)Oklahoma State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.