TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mannarinoof Rinderknech, Mannarino
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,075
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,183

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,075 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf7f0…912cbacked Mannarino60c1,192$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.0547854.8%262 W · 216 L+25.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9de…7310backed Rinderknech42c563$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa644…026ebacked Rinderknech38c563$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca85…7453backed Rinderknech36c263.83$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3315440.9%63 W · 91 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6216…1bd4backed Mannarino62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389545.3%43 W · 52 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Rinderknech38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Mannarino50c87.65$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.451,88048.5%912 W · 968 L+8.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Mannarino63c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.752,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Mannarino65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51,16849.1%573 W · 595 L-2.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Rinderknech34c40.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9168935%241 W · 448 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dde…91b2backed Rinderknech38c40.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.511136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Rinderknech49c37.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.454,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Mannarino66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.394058.4%549 W · 391 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Mannarino60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Mannarino63c21.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.053,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.