Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x901ef6699fca3baba93df83bac5ad1ad1d44c1d80c06d299d58cf8845805710c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virtus.proof Inner Circle, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x622a…2b59backed Inner Circle | 1c | 6,666$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Inner Circle | 28c | 650.78$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Virtus.pro | 73c | 440$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Virtus.pro | 79c | 356.46$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Virtus.pro | 78c | 313.18$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Inner Circle | 5c | 283.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Inner Circle | 17c | 256.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Virtus.pro | 79c | 213.35$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Virtus.pro | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Inner Circle | 18c | 196.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Inner Circle | 9c | 151.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Inner Circle | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bf…c63cbacked Virtus.pro | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…6c52backed Inner Circle | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Inner Circle | 17c | 118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2d…936cbacked Inner Circle | 15c | 116.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Inner Circle | 9c | 115.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Inner Circle | 17c | 109.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Inner Circle | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Inner Circle | 18c | 95.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Inner Circle | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Inner Circle | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Virtus.pro | 79c | 79.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe625…94c0backed Inner Circle | 20c | 75.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Inner Circle | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Virtus.pro | 57c | 60.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Inner Circle | 22c | 51.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0827…b573backed Virtus.pro | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Virtus.pro | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Virtus.pro | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Virtus.pro | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5)Virtus.pro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.