Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x908da6b4a3e76a592ecaeb84933dec625a6b9d4d1417ee13c7ae820002ea6fe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4ikibamboniof Level UP, 4ikibamboni
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Level UP | 67c | 1,127$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.63 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked 4ikibamboni | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb24f…3432backed Level UP | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked 4ikibamboni | 34c | 307.25$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 310 | 55.2%171 W · 139 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed 4ikibamboni | 33c | 224.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed 4ikibamboni | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Level UP | 65c | 95.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Level UP | 65c | 37.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed 4ikibamboni | 46c | 29.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Level UP | 56c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe83…82a8backed Level UP | 67c | 15.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 WinnerLevel UP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.