Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: avice Team vs NS Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x909d45abfc89b3722657926fd8567239419f204e89458e0b2d74818201fc55d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NS Teamof avice Team, NS Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked avice Team | 26c | 900.38$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.35 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…8df6backed NS Team | 44c | 520$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.2 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2172…5cdabacked avice Team | 62c | 309.86$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.81 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…9488backed NS Team | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked NS Team | 55c | 269.87$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.63 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed avice Team | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked avice Team | 27c | 194$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed NS Team | 73c | 163.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked NS Team | 74c | 127.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked NS Team | 73c | 92.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…89ebbacked NS Team | 74c | 45.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed NS Team | 74c | 37.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 125 | 59.2%74 W · 51 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed NS Team | 73c | 21.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…223dbacked NS Team | 76c | 20.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: avice Team vs NS Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: avice Team vs NS Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle PlayoffsNS Team won
- Dota 2: avice Team vs NS Team - Game 1 WinnerNS Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.