Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: avice Team vs NS Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd97d3b5f22cf2f3a746fce35ecdc27784bb1d5bd7f2912cf0b748b1ef1b93f7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NS Teamof avice Team, NS Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed avice Team | 55c | 4,381$2,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,409.36 | 304 | 52.3%159 W · 145 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked avice Team | 40c | 3,686$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.4 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked NS Team | 56c | 2,752$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.21 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked avice Team | 56c | 2,674$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.04 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…f750backed NS Team | 45c | 1,126$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…b188backed NS Team | 44c | 863.1$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.93 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…efdcbacked NS Team | 43c | 719.25$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.5 | 194 | 56.2%109 W · 85 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked NS Team | 46c | 597.12$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.23 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…8df6backed NS Team | 45c | 438.19$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked NS Team | 45c | 322.34$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.67 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc1…9a14backed NS Team | 44c | 245.67$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…4fa6backed NS Team | 43c | 206$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.42 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2262…ef1cbacked NS Team | 55c | 196.74$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.48 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed NS Team | 43c | 195.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked NS Team | 68c | 193.75$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…0a48backed NS Team | 55c | 182.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.78 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed avice Team | 11c | 171$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked avice Team | 9c | 160.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed NS Team | 46c | 159.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | +16.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked avice Team | 40c | 114.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked avice Team | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…223dbacked NS Team | 62c | 94.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked avice Team | 34c | 78.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed avice Team | 49c | 70.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked NS Team | 43c | 69.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…9845backed avice Team | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed avice Team | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 208 | 20.7%43 W · 165 L | -18.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d8…c931backed avice Team | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked NS Team | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…89ebbacked NS Team | 72c | 31.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked NS Team | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed avice Team | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: avice Team vs NS Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: avice Team vs NS Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle PlayoffsNS Team won
- Dota 2: avice Team vs NS Team - Game 2 WinnerNS Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.