Asian League · resolved market
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90e85130a372dc5972d93bd758fdac3413fb9a5425d79d207824a91d3dee13c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 64c | 2,844$1,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.83 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…dababacked Under | 38c | 1,312$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 37c | 1,235$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.84 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 1,050$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.61 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 60c | 828.42$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.04 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 697.77$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.16 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 61c | 460.58$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.66 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 60c | 410.13$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.98 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 60c | 188.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Over | 64c | 150.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 60c | 136.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 60c | 136.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 60c | 136.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 60c | 136.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 60c | 136.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 60c | 131.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 60c | 131.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 60c | 131.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 59c | 131.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 60c | 125.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x684d…e35bbacked Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 35c | 112.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 38c | 63.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 57c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Over | 60c | 41.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 40c | 26.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 60c | 16.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Yunnan Yukun FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)Yunnan Yukun FC won
- Spread: Yunnan Yukun FC (-1.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.