College Football · resolved market
Spread: Florida State (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90eab5eb970664359879017a2c199a52a9ca4d8465827ae6521efbd99b8466e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Florida Stateof Florida State, Virginia Tech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Virginia Tech | 49c | 25,000$12,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,250 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Florida State | 51c | 12,261$6,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,008.03 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Florida State | 51c | 11,290$5,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,531.94 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Florida State | 53c | 2,210$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.52 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Florida State | 51c | 1,136$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.54 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Virginia Tech | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Virginia Tech | 47c | 452$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.44 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Florida State | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Virginia Tech | 45c | 313.78$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Virginia Tech | 47c | 312$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.87 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Virginia Tech | 49c | 307$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.43 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Florida State | 54c | 295.18$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.18 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Virginia Tech | 48c | 209.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ae…2103backed Florida State | 59c | 202.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Virginia Tech | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Florida State | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Florida State | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Virginia Tech | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7d…ac4bbacked Virginia Tech | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Florida State | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…bd6dbacked Florida State | 52c | 21.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Florida State | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Virginia Tech | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Virginia Tech | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Florida State (-13.5)this page
- O/U 54.5Under won
- Spread: Florida State (-14.5)Florida State won
- Virginia Tech vs. Florida StateFlorida State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.