MLB · resolved market
NLDS: Dodgers vs. Padres Game 1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90fe36d4953591cfb9e1bf1c8491e53cf2ca45aca7727adaa5d9217cb4ed775b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dodgersof Dodgers, Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed Padres | 45c | 2,000$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Dodgers | 55c | 1,610$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Padres | 42c | 491.73$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.52 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…238dbacked Padres | 46c | 489.35$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.9 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Dodgers | 34c | 473.53$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.53 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Dodgers | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Dodgers | 58c | 173.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Dodgers | 58c | 103.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dodgers | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf97f…9e88backed Padres | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…6442backed Padres | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…eccabacked Padres | 45c | 70.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…c994backed Dodgers | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…ec7ebacked Dodgers | 58c | 69.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50c9…c9d2backed Dodgers | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…fdaabacked Dodgers | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Dodgers | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ad…4c1cbacked Padres | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…f250backed Padres | 45c | 53.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Dodgers | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…f6febacked Dodgers | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778a…1a6dbacked Dodgers | 57c | 43.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Dodgers | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Dodgers | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…9bc6backed Dodgers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +167.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.