Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x919a3cdc6030bb6d7d37b07ca678f8012324b11f8f76136baaf2c1e42c3ab3c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kentucky Wildcatsof Kentucky Wildcats, Missouri Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,787 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Missouri Tigers | 54c | 4,999$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.54 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kentucky Wildcats | 46c | 4,347$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,347.38 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Missouri Tigers | 35c | 829.01$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.83 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Missouri Tigers | 32c | 710.15$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.27 | 149 | 40.3%60 W · 89 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kentucky Wildcats | 46c | 696$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.84 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kentucky Wildcats | 67c | 627.35$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.02 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Missouri Tigers | 51c | 592.47$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.16 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Missouri Tigers | 50c | 585.72$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.24 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Missouri Tigers | 57c | 584.94$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.16 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Kentucky Wildcats | 50c | 497.8$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.11 | 164 | 45.1%74 W · 90 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Kentucky Wildcats | 78c | 471.9$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Kentucky Wildcats | 49c | 404.43$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.26 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Kentucky Wildcats | 43c | 343.24$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.75 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Missouri Tigers | 23c | 205.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Missouri Tigers | 33c | 198.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Kentucky Wildcats | 49c | 182.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kentucky Wildcats | 50c | 165.45$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kentucky Wildcats | 47c | 122.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Kentucky Wildcats | 49c | 121.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Missouri Tigers | 53c | 93.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Kentucky Wildcats | 60c | 90.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Kentucky Wildcats | 44c | 71.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Kentucky Wildcats | 52c | 58.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Kentucky Wildcats | 49c | 53.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Missouri Tigers | 46c | 43.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Missouri Tigers | 50c | 37.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kentucky Wildcats | 49c | 24.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Missouri Tigers | 53c | 23.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-3.5)this page
- Kentucky Wildcats vs. Missouri TigersKentucky Wildcats won
- Kentucky Wildcats vs. Missouri Tigers: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-2.5)Kentucky Wildcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.