Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91e88116fcb3a390a0844d4b065f24cddbaaacd9dfe9330b61ccdbca5d642610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 68c | 2,901$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.56 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 70c | 2,549$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.84 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 36c | 2,474$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.19 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 30c | 1,915$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.18 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 25c | 952.53$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.01 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 825.09$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.12 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 279.6$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 31c | 223.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 71c | 186.69$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 70c | 174.31$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Yes | 29c | 165.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 66c | 153$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -5.2wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 69c | 137.1$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 18c | 135.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 124.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 29c | 120.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 284 | 46.1%131 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 21c | 113.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 30c | 109.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 10c | 106.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 34c | 99.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 479 | 26.9%129 W · 350 L | -32.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 95.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 31c | 92.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 31c | 92.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…586dbacked Yes | 21c | 90.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed Yes | 20c | 71.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 30c | 64.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed No | 78c | 59.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 21c | 47.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 28c | 46.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 71c | 39.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 31c | 38.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 292 | 44.9%131 W · 161 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 29c | 36.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 31c | 35.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee92…7ec3backed Yes | 30c | 34.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 80c | 24.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 68c | 24.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 67c | 23.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 409 | 58.9%241 W · 168 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-04-19?No won
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-04-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.