Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9250e2cf84df89695a302938e6402249eada1aedd679e8828ff7e3a677659481
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fe4…52b5backed No | 39c | 2,519$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c88…e546backed Yes | 61c | 1,309$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…4eb1backed Yes | 61c | 1,216$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 22c | 575.1$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.28 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 24c | 282.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 53c | 255.64$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.33 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 54c | 246.42$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 80c | 206.94$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 21c | 204.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 51c | 197.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.19 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 50c | 196$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 47c | 154.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked No | 45c | 111.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 41c | 108.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 54c | 103.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 60c | 102.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 48c | 100.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 49c | 97.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 55c | 95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 47c | 87.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 26c | 80.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 56c | 75.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…1e89backed Yes | 53c | 75.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d11…71a2backed No | 47c | 74.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 60c | 74.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes | 80c | 74.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 71.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0072…c0bcbacked No | 45c | 71.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…ad5dbacked No | 29c | 69.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 80c | 69.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 40c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 65.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…aff3backed No | 31c | 60.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 37c | 58.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 42c | 56.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 51c | 52.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…9dc4backed No | 55c | 44.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4be…02adbacked No | 57c | 43.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…c015backed Yes | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…8665backed Yes | 76c | 39.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 66c | 37.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d31…fd72backed Yes | 48c | 37.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf712…1bcdbacked No | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c2…864dbacked No | 38c | 32.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…b88cbacked Yes | 50c | 30.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 78c | 29.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed No | 36c | 28.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 68c | 24.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 61c | 24.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…d546backed Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0865…3d2cbacked No | 48c | 21.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…5df0backed Yes | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…e0f9backed Yes | 75c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.