Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa230a27c12f18d66d71006c2e62ecf80055e48f45225def89b0f632ea6d2864f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f8…0ce4backed Yes | 26c | 4,010$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…d2a2backed Yes | 26c | 3,956$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fff…3c86backed No | 74c | 1,390$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ab…e80ebacked No | 74c | 1,333$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…7a12backed No | 74c | 1,325$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…ec28backed No | 74c | 1,320$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…57d1backed No | 74c | 1,300$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…bc7abacked No | 74c | 1,298$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 67c | 205.66$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 193.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 155.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 15c | 150.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 32c | 149.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 71c | 125.76$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 30c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 75c | 92.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 88.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 86.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 83.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…ad5dbacked Yes | 26c | 78.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 23c | 75.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 75.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 36c | 69.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 68.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 56.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 67c | 53.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 26c | 50.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…c8d7backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked No | 76c | 44.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 79c | 44.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3596…29dbbacked Yes | 34c | 43.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…e0f9backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…a410backed No | 67c | 37.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 36c | 30.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…4a60backed No | 67c | 21.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 77c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 69c | 19.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 15.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.