Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9328fa5ae965ff052745506a96c510e6d589803c2b58cc6f58b2c2bcc6de4916
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed VP.Prodigy | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…de5fbacked VP.Prodigy | 13c | 838$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Lynx | 77c | 808.97$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.75 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed VP.Prodigy | 24c | 801.39$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.39 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked VP.Prodigy | 24c | 168.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed VP.Prodigy | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 17c | 138$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Team Lynx | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…f7c2backed VP.Prodigy | 21c | 94.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Team Lynx | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Lynx | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Team Lynx | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Lynx | 69c | 58.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed VP.Prodigy | 24c | 53.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Team Lynx | 77c | 46.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Lynx | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…9b3bbacked VP.Prodigy | 31c | 36.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…70acbacked Team Lynx | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…04b6backed Team Lynx | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Team Lynx | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Lynx | 76c | 20.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefcc…4883backed Team Lynx | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.