Fifa International · resolved market
Will Denmark win on 2025-10-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x937355e41cf2ae535feef4eecf17bf58c4245e6fa2f1aecda9f856f200de8ec1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 12c | 10,726$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.97 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 11c | 9,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.99 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 11c | 8,931$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.46 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 12c | 6,825$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.02 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8d…8189backed No | 10c | 5,847$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.74 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 10c | 5,028$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.8 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 12c | 4,252$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.66 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 11c | 3,238$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.2 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 7c | 2,268$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.88 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 13c | 2,050$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.5 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 8c | 1,015$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 222 | 26.6%59 W · 163 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 12c | 999.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 11c | 799.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 11c | 750.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 10c | 650$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 10c | 507$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 227 | 49.3%112 W · 115 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 12c | 304.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed No | 12c | 288.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 12c | 277.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebb…593dbacked No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 13c | 199.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 11c | 174$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 431 | 45.2%195 W · 236 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Denmark win on 2025-10-09?this page
- Will Belarus vs. Denmark end in a draw?No won
- Will Belarus win on 2025-10-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.