Olympics · resolved market
Will Jonna Sundling (SWE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Women's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9413012d2582a18789946fd0fe057ef178518748ca6ae679838f995793b32cf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 20c | 249.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d8…969ebacked No | 80c | 249.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 68c | 230.3$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…9287backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes | 31c | 160.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed No | 70c | 145.65$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jonna Sundling (SWE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Women's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Astrid Oeyre Slind (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Women's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Ebba Andersson (SWE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Women's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Frida Karlsson (SWE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Women's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Jessica Diggins (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Women's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.