Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Bochum vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x942425d6293d03b57500e1249323355b82f2663c29e2d5ce1ef4b9e1ac2b77aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,854 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3991…43f7backed Under | 24c | 854$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe198…c000backed Over | 76c | 854$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…faf2backed Under | 21c | 404.51$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf45e…6e29backed Over | 79c | 404.51$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5eb…b51cbacked Over | 75c | 387.73$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf45b…8cffbacked Under | 25c | 387.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…389abacked Over | 75c | 305.03$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2266…83b6backed Under | 25c | 305.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…6755backed Under | 25c | 266.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…6c45backed Over | 75c | 266.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba7e…5f27backed Under | 25c | 214.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9de…009dbacked Over | 75c | 214.89$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Bochum vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
- VfL Bochum vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Bochum vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Bochum vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Over won
- VfL Bochum vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.