TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
VfL Bochumof Holstein Kiel, VfL Bochum
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,272

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,272 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 6 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x08ce…f301backed Holstein Kiel6c1,002$60 inLost-$60.134526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Holstein Kiel34c665.82$226 inLost-$226.384643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked VfL Bochum67c651.98$438 inWon+$213.832,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa220…5c87backed Holstein Kiel14c602.46$84 inLost-$84.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Holstein Kiel9c292.11$26 inLost-$26.31,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf15…bc03backed VfL Bochum71c16.24$12 inWon+$4.713652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.