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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 10?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,751
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,751 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xadaa…875abacked Yes35c332.19$118 inLost-$117.6213134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes13c265.08$34 inLost-$34.325,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes8c138.71$12 inLost-$11.6217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes30c100$30 inLost-$3012941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes20c92.6$19 inLost-$18.63,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd4…6084backed Yes38c91.03$35 inLost-$3513633.8%46 W · 90 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No36c87.97$32 inWon+$55.882,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes20c77.33$15 inLost-$15.471,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf34…063ebacked Yes26c76.27$20 inLost-$204632.6%15 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No71c70.23$50 inWon+$20.258,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes58c66.35$38 inLost-$38.431,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes38c62.37$24 inLost-$23.884126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Yes44c58.63$26 inLost-$25.9717237.2%64 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1297…1fb0backed Yes59c53.03$32 inLost-$31.535158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c50$17 inLost-$16.54,03235.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L+42.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1796…c490backed No72c47.13$34 inWon+$13.354870.8%34 W · 14 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes54c42$22 inLost-$22.4988150.5%445 W · 436 L-3.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed Yes57c39.29$23 inLost-$22.521,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No41c33.04$14 inWon+$19.423,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No71c30$21 inWon+$8.739968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc9…c353backed Yes35c30$11 inLost-$10.55726.3%15 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c30$22 inWon+$8.35,48956%3,075 W · 2,414 L-123.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c29.99$12 inWon+$17.692,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No58c26.52$15 inWon+$11.072,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed Yes46c24.46$11 inLost-$11.1960054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes48c24.4$12 inLost-$11.7164976.9%499 W · 150 L+100.8wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+32.3%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No54c24$13 inWon+$10.9551553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No57c22$13 inWon+$9.4339158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes56c20$11 inLost-$11.225946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No72c20$14 inWon+$5.61,59778.6%1,255 W · 342 L+41.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes50c20$10 inLost-$1028946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No65c18.63$12 inWon+$6.5112,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed No72c17$12 inWon+$4.7419764.5%127 W · 70 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No63c16.71$11 inWon+$6.1698160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed No80c14.32$11 inWon+$2.86633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.