NHL · resolved market
World Championships: Germany vs. Switzerland
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x947b76a4db74c55b351818a3838dd03d2686e987a676292901f71843e5ab2121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Switzerlandof Germany, Switzerland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed Germany | 16c | 1,614$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.28 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Germany | 16c | 999.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Germany | 12c | 737.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Germany | 17c | 617.7$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed Germany | 14c | 556.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 137 | 49.6%68 W · 69 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91d…0f36backed Germany | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Germany | 17c | 521.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Germany | 19c | 471.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Germany | 19c | 434.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Germany | 18c | 416.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Germany | 16c | 399.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Germany | 20c | 265$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…95d5backed Switzerland | 80c | 246$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…75dcbacked Germany | 16c | 155.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Germany | 17c | 146.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Germany | 17c | 128.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Germany | 19c | 124.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Germany | 17c | 110.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Germany | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Germany | 20c | 101.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Germany | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Germany | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92db…68d2backed Germany | 19c | 98.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…8f34backed Germany | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Switzerland | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Germany | 20c | 48.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Switzerland | 76c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 454 | 47.8%217 W · 237 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.