Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Appalachian State Mountaineers (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94a85c6f162c5252a790f872655c381c931d798f9d264b283c8e5a244ebd9a26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Appalachian State Mountaineersof Appalachian State Mountaineers, Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe248…f293backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 56c | 2,405$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.52 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 44c | 2,168$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.37 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 47c | 111.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 45c | 85.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 50c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 45c | 53.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b4…a278backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 54c | 32.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…a497backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 55c | 31.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +7.0wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…479dbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 56c | 24.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 44c | 24.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Appalachian State Mountaineers (-8.5)this page
- Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. Appalachian State MountaineersAppalachian State Mountaineers won
- Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: O/U 122.5Over won
- Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: O/U 124.5Over won
- Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: O/U 125.5Over won
- Spread: Appalachian State Mountaineers (-9.5)Appalachian State Mountaineers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.