Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94e17953942787c76d4c32fd7366a05595f58b5b4dcdf101f8fd83654729a309
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc602…6278backed Yes | 6c | 319.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 46c | 298.5$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 51c | 283.77$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 69c | 240.09$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 46c | 153.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…4847backed Yes | 22c | 90.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…8e18backed Yes | 78c | 87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 85.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 51c | 83.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 23c | 72.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 52c | 64.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa456…6d13backed Yes | 21c | 54.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed No | 30c | 46.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590b…db04backed Yes | 32c | 43.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 43c | 41.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 38.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 46c | 31.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 31.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe63b…5292backed Yes | 68c | 30.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8762…4dd9backed No | 80c | 28.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 46c | 23.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036b…e573backed Yes | 49c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 78c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 72c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 15?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 78°F or higher on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 15?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.