TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, Nemiga Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,405
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,811

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,405 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Nemiga Gaming0c4,414$22 inLost-$21.966169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9513…1f70backed Nemiga Gaming27c714.29$191 inLost-$191.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked L1ga Team78c500$390 inWon+$11016440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Nemiga Gaming21c321.9$68 inLost-$68.146649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Nemiga Gaming25c308.41$77 inLost-$77.0231835.8%114 W · 204 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed L1ga Team71c259.98$184 inWon+$76.41,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf597…efeebacked Nemiga Gaming20c250$50 inLost-$509223.9%22 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming24c204.37$49 inLost-$48.962,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Nemiga Gaming21c194.02$40 inLost-$4053844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Nemiga Gaming8c150.41$12 inLost-$11.6778516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked Nemiga Gaming13c100$13 inLost-$1324137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Nemiga Gaming66c95.61$63 inLost-$6373554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0386…2b1abacked Nemiga Gaming32c93.38$30 inLost-$3030543%131 W · 174 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+52.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb51f…b7dbbacked L1ga Team66c85.54$57 inWon+$28.855038%19 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed Nemiga Gaming57c59.1$34 inLost-$33.8715033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked L1ga Team62c50.99$32 inWon+$19.1415450%77 W · 77 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022d…d8cebacked Nemiga Gaming32c44.55$14 inLost-$14.1412454%67 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a0c…3ccebacked Nemiga Gaming48c42.81$21 inLost-$20.558132.1%26 W · 55 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked L1ga Team55c36.29$20 inWon+$16.292770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked L1ga Team40c25$10 inWon+$1520151.2%103 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea6…dcf5backed L1ga Team61c20.74$13 inWon+$8.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.