Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76bddcb1c0991b1dc66a2cf757b5086b481d99f1e75155e3508ed01239f1c6f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof L1ga Team, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,390 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed L1ga Team | 0c | 3,399$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Nemiga Gaming | 67c | 1,268$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.11 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed L1ga Team | 6c | 770$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Nemiga Gaming | 78c | 508.78$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 490.45$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.23 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed L1ga Team | 52c | 356.09$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.29 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…efeebacked L1ga Team | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked L1ga Team | 48c | 249.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 211.72$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.86 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedce…412ebacked L1ga Team | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked L1ga Team | 57c | 182$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed L1ga Team | 16c | 165$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked L1ga Team | 71c | 155.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed L1ga Team | 38c | 149.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029c…d586backed Nemiga Gaming | 66c | 143.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed L1ga Team | 55c | 142$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed L1ga Team | 22c | 129.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 104.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed L1ga Team | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 173 | 23.1%40 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed L1ga Team | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +15.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked L1ga Team | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked L1ga Team | 31c | 95.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d66…aa07backed Nemiga Gaming | 73c | 82.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked L1ga Team | 52c | 60.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 56.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 53.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6d…f901backed L1ga Team | 58c | 42.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…97e0backed Nemiga Gaming | 79c | 38.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…538dbacked L1ga Team | 61c | 36.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 33.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…999bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked L1ga Team | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 63c | 18.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group BNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5)Nemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.