NHL · resolved market
AHL: Hershey Bears vs. Syracuse Crunch
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9519f349dca92098e3997f0b6ea0e724e70c62909adc7f5077f557fade8ede82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hershey Bearsof Hershey Bears, Syracuse Crunch
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Hershey Bears | 39c | 770.27$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.16 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Syracuse Crunch | 62c | 613.7$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.16 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Hershey Bears | 37c | 177$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Syracuse Crunch | 62c | 110.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Syracuse Crunch | 60c | 79.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Syracuse Crunch | 62c | 64.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Syracuse Crunch | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Hershey Bears | 70c | 57.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed Hershey Bears | 36c | 55.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Syracuse Crunch | 62c | 54.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Hershey Bears | 41c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Syracuse Crunch | 59c | 53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Hershey Bears | 39c | 48.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Syracuse Crunch | 61c | 45.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Syracuse Crunch | 64c | 44.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Syracuse Crunch | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…a5c3backed Syracuse Crunch | 61c | 25.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Syracuse Crunch | 64c | 22.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Syracuse Crunch | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.