Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95394d16695d0fa61b03f4d9f28c52b241d6e761f4134e58647854cdd384dc15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,676$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.69 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 0c | 2,515$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,930$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 12c | 839.97$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…93c9backed Yes | 26c | 827.14$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.61 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 17c | 686.13$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6577…2660backed No | 70c | 599.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked No | 71c | 555$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.16 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 13c | 299.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3def…08b4backed Yes | 28c | 228.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 9c | 201$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed7…516cbacked Yes | 8c | 139.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 17c | 115.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 25c | 88.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc52…d0f7backed Yes | 36c | 83.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 77c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29b…8021backed Yes | 34c | 44.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…119ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…becdbacked No | 72c | 34.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…a989backed Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.