Olympics · resolved market
Will Tatjana Smith (RSA) win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9569e3fe91337d8c4eea40553c9e8b138cbf2fafe0a7d9e2e13046d222146ec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x241e…c7bfbacked Yes | 1c | 16,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5230…58f5backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…552fbacked No | 49c | 617.49$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.49 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 52c | 581.62$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.63 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed No | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Yes | 45c | 251.88$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.35 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 43c | 103.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7d…0ab0backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb1…e8f2backed No | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…fc4cbacked Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc07…1026backed No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…daf0backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tatjana Smith (RSA) win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke?this page
- Will Kate Douglass (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke?Yes won
- Will Lilly King (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke?No won
- Will Shiwen Ye (CHN) win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke?No won
- Will Tes Schouten (NED) win Gold in Women's 200m Breaststroke?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.