College Football · resolved market
Spread: James Madison (-20.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9592cd19f5006bd9d7bbee6fbfafd5c849acd8e179da889d001591d0fedc8251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madisonof James Madison, Appalachian State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed James Madison | 55c | 6,659$3,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,996.66 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Appalachian State | 45c | 6,498$2,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,924.07 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Appalachian State | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed James Madison | 53c | 4,820$2,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.31 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked James Madison | 55c | 327.27$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.27 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Appalachian State | 45c | 264.79$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.15 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Appalachian State | 45c | 224.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed James Madison | 55c | 77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked James Madison | 52c | 61.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed James Madison | 53c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…365bbacked Appalachian State | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed James Madison | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Appalachian State | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Appalachian State | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed James Madison | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: James Madison (-20.5)this page
- Appalachian State vs. James MadisonJames Madison won
- Appalachian State vs. James Madison: O/U 52.5Over won
- Appalachian State vs. James Madison: O/U 53.5Over won
- O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: James Madison (-19.5)James Madison won
- Spread: James Madison (-21.5)James Madison won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.