College Football · resolved market
Spread: Iowa (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x959bde94ab578c83032b7fe8e6e35a4d224ef66346c94b72f11986967254868a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn Stateof Iowa, Penn State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penn State | 53c | 4,130$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,956.97 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Iowa | 47c | 3,919$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.53 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Iowa | 45c | 2,585$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.82 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Penn State | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Penn State | 53c | 679$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.13 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Penn State | 54c | 470$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.2 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Iowa | 48c | 364.58$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Iowa | 42c | 245.66$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Penn State | 58c | 239.66$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Penn State | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Penn State | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Penn State | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Iowa | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Iowa | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…bb9abacked Penn State | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Penn State | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…c0edbacked Iowa | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…3363backed Penn State | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Penn State | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Penn State | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Iowa (-3.5)this page
- O/U 39.5Over won
- Penn State vs. IowaIowa won
- Penn State vs. Iowa: O/U 40.5Over won
- Spread: Iowa (-2.5)Penn State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.