Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 July 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95d40c1f9794f30b033a6d063de30787f776fb42a9c00cc6395cda8736542007
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 3c | 16,979$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.3 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c6b4backed Yes | 5c | 9,414$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.2 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 9c | 7,698$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.46 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 14c | 4,615$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.47 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 7c | 2,513$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,847$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.04 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 80c | 1,092$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.32 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 490.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba15…7579backed Yes | 19c | 396.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 360.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce2…de8bbacked Yes | 5c | 355$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…879abacked Yes | 12c | 256.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd801…b39bbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2503…9be5backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 July 6-12?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 July 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 July 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 July 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 July 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 July 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 July 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 July 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 July 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.