NFL · resolved market
Will DeAndre Hopkins record 2 or more receptions in Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95e2155e998cb16fd88a15065b985c2c9aee58873d29346b0a5fdd7add326e01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cb…6e12backed Over | 44c | 118$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Under | 56c | 113.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…57a8backed Over | 44c | 113$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a9…0d8fbacked Under | 56c | 113$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9c…8862backed Under | 56c | 113$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Under | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…9441backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce80…7043backed Over | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…f3c8backed Under | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc93…4c32backed Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeAndre Hopkins record 2 or more receptions in Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Dallas Goedert record 5 or more receptions in Super Bowl LIX?Under won
- Will JuJu Smith-Schuster record 2 or more receptions in Super Bowl LIX?Over won
- Will Samaje Perine record 2 or more receptions in Super Bowl LIX?Under won
- Will Travis Kelce record 7 or more receptions in Super Bowl LIX?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.