South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-10-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x969b9222229121374f2fcafc39f4c26cd6759a90698a971ac61355d943feb19e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 33c | 3,323$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,235.98 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 2,984$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.86 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 67c | 2,298$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.9 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 32c | 1,962$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.3 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…280dbacked No | 66c | 1,615$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc5…63c0backed Yes | 34c | 1,613$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 38c | 1,496$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.27 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 23c | 1,352$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.24 | 148 | 24.3%36 W · 112 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 65c | 1,198$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.71 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 1,147$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.3 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 33c | 1,059$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.11 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…7e3fbacked No | 68c | 1,000$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4219…e435backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…11aebacked Yes | 26c | 759.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 56c | 400$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 35c | 296.11$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.38 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 63c | 205$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +36%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc74…216cbacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 28c | 154.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.52 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 32c | 152$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 65c | 144.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a61…cb57backed No | 74c | 133.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…d9e5backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 38c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…06cbbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Yes | 62c | 32.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 60c | 20.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-10-20?this page
- Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-10-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.