Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96f0725588a4b434a815094f3bd2ae95904ec71fd2f0043294f8edd94078dc91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 18c | 513.39$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 9c | 489.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 21c | 436.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 35c | 400.46$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…b7e0backed No | 11c | 387.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…8902backed No | 12c | 278.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 274.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 47c | 146.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 141.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 74c | 114.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 27c | 114.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 17c | 99.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 58c | 98.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 77c | 98.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 94.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 55c | 88.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 72c | 87.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 57c | 83.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 82.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 25c | 64.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 52c | 61.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 53.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 52c | 50.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 69c | 48.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 62c | 46.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 47c | 46.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…6938backed No | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 46c | 40.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 64c | 38.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 37.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 65c | 37.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 54c | 35.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 55c | 34.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 58c | 34.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 70c | 33.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…5b1cbacked No | 44c | 32.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 49c | 26.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 56c | 23.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 47c | 23.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 55c | 23.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 57c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 54c | 20.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f56…ea85backed Yes | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 66c | 17.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 70c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.