Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44438c9497456b56e8d778e05aab4a59350761110092a81bbd2e28cc0fe4ecea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,253$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 490.17$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.79 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 365.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 297.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 76c | 272.98$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 7c | 263.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 221.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 185.86$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 75c | 168.66$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 165.15$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 79c | 164.65$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 150.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 18c | 147.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 28c | 136.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 37c | 136.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 119.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 105.32$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 79c | 105.03$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 102.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 102.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 101.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 24c | 92.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 86.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 33c | 84.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 18c | 84.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 17c | 76.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 22c | 71.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e15bbacked Yes | 39c | 70.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 33c | 70.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked Yes | 26c | 62.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked Yes | 26c | 62.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 22c | 59.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2006…7e1bbacked Yes | 17c | 59.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 32c | 58.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 32c | 57.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 51.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 76c | 50.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 69c | 49.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 25c | 49.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 78c | 48.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 44.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 44.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…cb26backed No | 72c | 39.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 29c | 39.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 78c | 38.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 29c | 37.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 35c | 37.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 31.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 75c | 31.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 80c | 30.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 30.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…9b20backed No | 73c | 21.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 72c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.