MLB · resolved market
Giants vs. Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9746b0ffe0fc14032fdf7764f51e0d974e41d54b886a6a8620784534b9fc4655
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 47c | 4,832$2,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,560.71 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.98 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 53c | 1,226$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 45c | 344.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.38 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b1…3738backed Over | 47c | 55.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…4022backed Over | 47c | 53.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…ff63backed Over | 47c | 52.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb19…e5a0backed Under | 55c | 51.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…63c7backed Under | 55c | 50.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ced…8282backed Under | 55c | 49.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…ec44backed Over | 47c | 49.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982d…753abacked Under | 55c | 48.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d5…dd3ebacked Over | 47c | 48.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…cc6dbacked Under | 55c | 47.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da8…1321backed Under | 55c | 47.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36de…1639backed Under | 55c | 46.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…d6c0backed Over | 47c | 43.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…5077backed Over | 47c | 42.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Giants vs. Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Giants vs. BrewersGiants won
- Spread: Brewers (-1.5)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.