NHL · resolved market
SHL: Vaexjoe vs. Roegle
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9880239e8605edb7a945db2a7544f6274221828d3cea7981f1dd4d14da088916
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Roegleof Vaexjoe, Roegle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Vaexjoe | 45c | 762.41$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.56 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Roegle | 55c | 232.19$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.48 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Roegle | 55c | 145.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Roegle | 55c | 126.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Roegle | 55c | 106.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Roegle | 55c | 102.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Roegle | 59c | 95.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Vaexjoe | 49c | 59.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…4693backed Vaexjoe | 30c | 51.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Roegle | 70c | 35.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Roegle | 65c | 34.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Vaexjoe | 42c | 31.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Vaexjoe | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…528abacked Vaexjoe | 50c | 26.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…38d2backed Roegle | 50c | 25.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd565…4eadbacked Vaexjoe | 50c | 25.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Roegle | 76c | 24.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb52…79afbacked Roegle | 50c | 23.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…67b6backed Roegle | 50c | 23.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f77…d985backed Vaexjoe | 50c | 22.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…378fbacked Vaexjoe | 50c | 22.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014d…8e0ebacked Vaexjoe | 50c | 22.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8520…af23backed Roegle | 50c | 21.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Roegle | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Roegle | 70c | 16.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.