Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98d47f2daaee2178dc067efed21797c5d503b267dac333a271c53a4d50496554
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 572.82$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 78c | 240.49$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.01 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 9c | 135.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 67c | 111.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 14c | 85.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 35c | 71.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 28c | 71.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 75c | 66.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 64.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 64.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 64c | 62.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 37c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 37c | 54.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 74c | 54.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 79c | 54.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 50.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 35c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 32c | 38.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 33c | 37.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 27c | 36.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 35.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…7a46backed No | 57c | 34.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c2…c9bbbacked No | 58c | 34.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9701…921abacked Yes | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked No | 42c | 29.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 42c | 26.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 49c | 25.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 59c | 25.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 48c | 25.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 52c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…a5cbbacked No | 51c | 23.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed No | 73c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 69c | 18.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.