Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qualifier 1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9959ac92d4d9e6955f82ae635b3b2c1b09e252ce54e47055bb4e33347fd1e30a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof VP.Prodigy, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed MODUS | 45c | 339.4$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.1 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed VP.Prodigy | 37c | 255.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.52 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…8f3fbacked MODUS | 68c | 249.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x787f…d40cbacked MODUS | 70c | 224.36$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.13 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked VP.Prodigy | 36c | 219.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.61 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed MODUS | 63c | 173.51$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.31 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked MODUS | 71c | 153.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed VP.Prodigy | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked VP.Prodigy | 56c | 145.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked VP.Prodigy | 29c | 119.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed MODUS | 64c | 107$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed VP.Prodigy | 32c | 94.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked VP.Prodigy | 27c | 66.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…fbbbbacked VP.Prodigy | 31c | 58.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked MODUS | 73c | 54.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed VP.Prodigy | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked VP.Prodigy | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…1e43backed VP.Prodigy | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed MODUS | 40c | 33.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed MODUS | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x257e…ca61backed VP.Prodigy | 55c | 25.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked MODUS | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked VP.Prodigy | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed VP.Prodigy | 64c | 17.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qualifier 1 Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
- Game Handicap: MODUS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5)VP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.