NHL · resolved market
AHL: Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. Calgary Wranglers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9997e8a8350ae9ab3434df74233570142c27049739dd5b1b3be5c3149fa5fbab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coachella Valley Firebirdsof Coachella Valley Firebirds, Calgary Wranglers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xded2…42e0backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 7c | 9,960$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,262.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b45…49c8backed Calgary Wranglers | 43c | 196$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…771dbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 57c | 195$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Calgary Wranglers | 42c | 189.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…c7bbbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 57c | 189$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63f…a3b1backed Calgary Wranglers | 43c | 188$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…5da0backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 58c | 172.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ef…91cebacked Calgary Wranglers | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…41e9backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…6ab1backed Calgary Wranglers | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…1b72backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…7245backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 58c | 24.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe846…6315backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…5d00backed Coachella Valley Firebirds | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…890fbacked Coachella Valley Firebirds | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.