MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ca52f0f27462b8851eec072564ebe6223906e7018e66be74432d3697806fae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 927.8$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.79 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 44c | 672.13$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.51 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 632.13$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.51 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 2c | 626.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Under | 54c | 583.44$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 583.25$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.2 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 499.98$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 54c | 354.89$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.25 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 55c | 353.51$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.71 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 46c | 191$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 56c | 150.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 56c | 149.19$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 56c | 149.19$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 56c | 149.19$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 56c | 149.19$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 56c | 149.19$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 56c | 149.19$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Over | 45c | 108$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 46c | 97.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…c116backed Under | 72c | 78.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 46c | 69.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 26c | 54.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 45c | 38.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Under | 66c | 31.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 24.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 56c | 22.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Under | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota TwinsTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.